Mick Abel rung up the Pirates. Alvarado is persona non grata. A lot can change for an organization in one weekend. How can the IronPigs help the Phillies? And how can the IronPigs maintain their winning ways? Let’s open up the notebook of a sportswriter who spent 5 1/2 hours in the car Sunday, just to watch under two hours of baseball. And, it was worth it.
- After Abel’s great start against the Pirates Sunday, does he move ahead of Painter? Not as a prospect, but for an option, for now? He certainly allows the Phillies some flexibility and keeps the timeline for Painter at the status quo rather than accelerating it to accommodate a broken Nola.
- The “I wanna see” folks are clamoring for another Abel start in Philadelphia. And, in some ways they are right to move on, to perhaps an opponent more challenging that the 2025 Pittsburgh Pirates. But the plan was in place. The rotation was set for the road trip and the rest of the pitching for the west coast, and altering it would have sent a knee-jerk message to the team. Ride it. Taijuan Walker has done nothing to remove himself from consideration for the fifth spot in the rotation, so the veteran gets the opportunity. For now. When they come back home, get Monday 5/26 off, and then open a home series with the Braves, perhaps additional changes will be in order.
- I’m not here to say that Aaron Nola doesn’t have a twisted ankle. However, a pause in his season certainly seemed in order, and it can help, just as it has for other players in the past. I was calling for it. I don’t think we’ll see any rehab starts, though.
- Back to Abel for a minute. Those of us who have been watching the Triple-A team very closely were not surprised by his performance. Sure, it was a bit extra, but there’s a reason I wrote the following words back on 5/11, concerning Abel’s start on 5/10: “Last night’s game by Abel in the ‘Pigs win wasn’t just a good performance or even a statement. It was an announcement. An arrival. He’s here. He’s ready.” Sure enough, the Phillies came calling and he answered the bell. That’s why we had to go down there to see it ourselves. Just like we did for Nola in July, 10 years ago.
- But what are they gonna do without Alvarado? They’re gonna have to make a big trade to get a closer, right? Well, big trades don’t normally happen in May, unless you can figure out another way to fleece the Marlins [I had to check. Jesus Tinoco anybody?]. And, for the record because everything this weekend has been conflated in some way or another: I don’t think you can trade Abel or Painter. Young starting pitching is gold. It’s money in the bank not to have to go out and buy pitching. We’ll talk about trades in a minute. What they need to do is ask everyone to step up. Everyone. And see who answers the bell. Romano becomes your closer. Strahm and Kerkering get challenged some more. If Kerkering needs a re-set, send him down and we’ll work on him, but he needs to be part of this. Banks, Hernandez, Ross, Ruiz: Everyone take one step forward. Perform or take two steps backwards. Then, you cycle guys in for 2-3 outing “try outs.” It starts now with Lazar. He is on the 40-man and those guys get the first shot because they can be sent out without losing them. He’s been pitching better lately, so it is legit. Let’s run down my order for who goes next when someone gets “kicked off the island” of big league relievers:
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- Lazar: With Abel going down today and Walker into the rotation, this is the Walker spot but he should get chances in low leverage to show that he belongs. Or, doesn’t. Lazar hasn’t allowed a run since May 2–a string of 5 scoreless including a 2.0 inning jawn. He hasn’t had a melt-down since April 26 and his only other multi-run outing was April 12.
- 2. RHP Brett de Geus: Speaking of the Marlins. Anyway, de Geus has 60 games of MLB experience and the numbers are not pretty, but he could fill a multi-inning role early or middle of the game, perhaps. He’s already on the 40-man so it’s easy to give him a try. He’s 3-1, 1.00ERA in 12 games with the IronPigs
- 3. RHP Guillo Zuñiga: Middling number over a small sample of 17 MLB games, but he’s been borderline dominant at times this season for the ‘Pigs. Yes, I’ve called him the “right-handed Alvarado” but he doesn’t have that much juice. (sorry). He’ll require a 40-man spot, but at this point it’s worth a try. Give him a shot and see if you can find an MLB role before the end of July.
- 4. RHP Daniel Robert: I know he already had a modicum of opportunity, but here’s where you give him some real run before you give up. He has stuff it’s just about harnessing it.
- 5. RHP Seth Johnson: He has been converted to a reliever and yes, the stuff is playing up. Perhaps this spot in the reliever parade should be his chance. The other day he lost his slider completely and became fastball-only and lost the game. We’re holding that against him, but it was just one game. He’s already on the 40-man so he’s an easy tryout.
- 6. RHP Nicholas Padilla: He recently had his only bad outing and that has knocked him down. He’s been getting guys out. 1-0, 2.12, 14G. Only 4G of MLB time, which also has him lower on the list.
- 7. RHP Koyo Aoyagi: They didn’t bring him here to pitch only in Triple-A. It’s just, he’s had some challenges finding the strike zone at times. Sometimes it feels like it’s when the weather is bad. Having a submarine guy could give a different look, though. He will need a 40-man spot.
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- Notice something missing? While the Phillies have (had?) a plethora of left-handed pitching, the Triple-A team does not. LHP Nick Vespi is the lone option, starter or reliever. And he hasn’t been great, so wasn’t included above. We’ve got some other guys too, but the seven above are the ones I’d play the Survivor game with before the trade deadline. Oh, and RHP Michael Mercado is the guy in line to lose his 40-man spot. He hasn’t looked good all season. Perhaps it’s an injury or perhaps a change of scenery would help him.
- OK, so that’s 7 guys who can get one-week try-outs to see if you can find the next Hoffman or Bellatti. That’s why these guys are here, right? See what you have and it will make the middle innings more exciting to watch. Survivor: Bullpen Edition!
- Alright, but what if there are no survivors? And even if you find a Survivor, he might not be great, and you’ve gotta make a trade. The window demands that this trade be significant. Who are you willing to give up?
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- 1. LHP Ranger Suarez. That hurts because I love me some Ranger. Always have, since his was in the Venezuelan Summer League way back when. But he’s a lefty starting pitcher on an expiring contract. Everyone needs starters. But, if you’re a contender that needs a starter, are you going to be willing to give up your best reliever? Maybe not. Maybe a “now and later” trade where a fringe contender gives you the closer for Ranger plus RHP Jean Cabrera? OK, probably not that either, but it would be worth a try.
- 2. CF Johan Rojas or CF Brandon Marsh. See #4 below. An MLB outfielder who an play CF reasonably well, but is blocking a top prospect? Perhaps available? Might have to be part of a package.
- 3. SS Aidan Miller. Make no mistake I like him as a player and he’s doing better all the time at AA-Reading. But, you’ve got Turner who you are paying and you can re-sign Stott. An opening at 3B can be filled more easily than middle infield?. It’s more about guys I like more, and reasons.
- 4. CF Justin Crawford. Stronger-Ben-Revere could be a solution to the perennial problem in CF for the Phillies. Are they really willing to give up on that? On a rookie contract?
- 5. RHP Mick Abel. As discussed above, young, controllable, starting pitchers are invaluable, which is why you draft them high and stroke their development so carefully. Trading Abel for a rental reliever signals (to me) that this is the year, and they might have to blow it up after that. Maybe more exposure to the big leagues before the deadline will make this more or less of a decision, but it would feel like really selling the future short a bit.
- 6. RHP Andrew Painter. Probably untouchable and perhaps selling low considering he’s coming off an injury and he hasn’t “arrived” yet. Like with Abel, maybe some clarity will be on the horizon.
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- What about the IronPigs playoffs? Welp, we serve at the pleasure of the Phillies so I don’t think they’re looking nearly as hard at June 22 as we are here at the Top Level. But, it is a bit of a playoff push starting right now, right? We do get to see what some of these guys are made of here in Allentown over the next couple weeks. There may be some adversity thrown in by roster moves, as well. Maybe time for some guys to step up around here. Will A.C. push them a bit? Are there June 1 opt-outs to be exercised? The return of Matty Kroon? Let’s go!
- But, we DO think the IronPigs organization should be looking towards the playoffs. One of the good things about how this was set up is that as the first-half winner and sole host, they get to sell seats, packages, group areas and the like from now until the end of September and they can plan for what kind of staff and supplies they need. That way, it doesn’t turn into a wasteland of short staff, stale rolls, kicked kegs and miserable employees. If they want advice, the Phantoms could let you know how lucrative hosting playoffs can be. However, don’t let them talk you into putting your team on the shelf for an entire week so that you can get a weekend game. Doesn’t work for winning.
Featured Image: The Philly skyline from Citizens Bank Park is an underrated feature when a clear day allows it. It’s no Pittsburgh, that’s for sure, but it’s a good view when you can get it. Photo: Kram